30 years, the world will use energy far
more efficiently—in everything from
power generation and transmission
to residential use and transportation—
through the use of energy-saving
practices and technologies.
And those improvements are critical.
Although the report projects that
energy demand will be about 30
percent higher in 2040 versus 2010,
growth in energy use over that period
would be four times that were it not for
expected gains in energy efficiency.
The power of efficiency can be seen
in the economies of the OECD, where
energy demand will remain essentially
flat through 2040 even as GDP nearly
doubles. Efficiency will have a big
impact in non-OECD countries, too,
but it will not be enough to offset the
rise in energy demand associated with
five-sixths of the world’s population
improving its living standards. The
report sees non-OECD energy demand
rising by nearly 60 percent. However,
even by 2040, per-capita energy use in
non-OECD countries will be about 60
percent less than in OECD nations.
Fleet by Type
Billions of vehicles
Another area in which efficiency will
make a very visible impact over the next
30 years is the transportation sector.
The report predicts that the average
new car will get 48 miles per gallon
(mpg) in 2040, compared to 27 mpg in
2010, as hybrid vehicles gain share and
conventional vehicles grow smaller and
more fuel-efficient. By 2040, hybrids and
other advanced vehicles will account
for nearly 50 percent of all light-duty
vehicles on the road (Figure 3).
Evolving Energy Supplies
Considering that 100 years ago most
of the world’s energy came from
wood and coal, it is clear that energy
supplies can change dramatically over
time. Over the next 30 years, energy
supplies will continue to diversify as
new technologies and sources emerge.
Oil, natural gas, and coal will continue
to be the most widely used fuels in
2040, making up about 80 percent of
total energy consumption. The scale
and affordability of these fuels position
them to be the major long-term
supplies over the next several decades.
Oil and other liquid fuels will remain
the single largest energy source in
2040, meeting about one-third of
demand (Figure 4). Globally, demand
for liquid fuels will rise by almost 30
percent, with nearly 80 percent of
this increase tied to transportation.
While demand for fuels for personal
transportation is expected to level off,
demand for commercial transportation—
mostly trucks, but also airplanes, ships,
and trains—is expected to rise around
the world. Overall, global energy
demand for transportation will rise by
nearly 45 percent from 2010 to 2040.
The world continues to have ample
supplies of oil to meet its needs;
the report projects that by 2040, 55
percent of the world’s oil resources
will remain unproduced.
But through 2040, the fastest-growing
major fuel will be natural gas. Global
demand for natural gas is expected
to rise by more than 60 percent from
2010 to 2040. Much of this growth
will come from electric utilities and
other consumers shifting away from
coal, encouraged in part by emerging
policies that seek to curb emissions by
imposing a cost on higher-carbon fuels.
By 2025, natural gas, which emits
up to 60 percent less carbon dioxide
(CO2) emissions than coal when used
for electricity generation, will have
continued on page 12
Global Energy Demand by Fuel Type
From its peak
in 2025, coal
will decline by
more than 10
percent by 2040.
and China are the
biggest users of
hydro power, which
makes up over 80
percent of total